So Kevin Love wants out. Where is a good destination for both him and the Timberwolves? In part two of my analysis of potential landing spots for Love, I examine how Love to the Rockets would work out and what the Timberwolves could get in return.
The Houston Rockets have two legit stars in James Harden and Dwight Howard, lots of solid players such as Omer Asik, Jeremy Lin and Chandler Parsons, and a ton of young talent such as Terrance Jones and Patrick Beverly. They will be legit title contenders next year, hands down. But Houston believes it needs a third true star in order to win it all, and that probably is the case. There were rumors that they would make a run to get ‘Melo in free agency if he opted out, and now there are rumors that they will try to trade for Love. While Love would make a great addition, and makes sense on the surface, it is slightly puzzling. While a Love and Howard frontcourt would dominate in so many ways, the acquisition of Love will not help the defense of the Rockets and the trade to get him would probably leave them with a huge hole at the small forward spot.
The Rockets have the 25th pick in the 2014 draft, which is not as good of a trade piece as the other possible team’s draft picks. All the other trade destinations either have more 1st rounders to offer this year or a pick within the lottery. Houston does have all of its future first rounders though, so they might be able to include their 2016 pick also. When it comes to players they can offer, there are lots of possibilities. Assuming that Harden and Howard are untouchable (they are unless Lebron or Durant is offered, and they won’t be), almost all of the other contracts from the Rockets are movable. That means Asik, Lin, Parsons, Jones, Beverly, Donatas Montiejunas, and any filler players could be moved fairly easily. Most likely though, the deal would involve Asik and Parsons along with a mix of other young players. No matter what players would actually be involved in the trade, though, the players that Minnesota would get back would be solid, and both Asik and Lin have huge expiring contracts. Asik is a good rim protector, Lin is a solid point guard, Parsons is a great starting small forward and third or fourth option on a contender, and the younger players have the possibility to develop into great players. When it comes to the cap situation, in the 14-15 season they will have 12 players on their roster taking up 65.4 million in salary if they accept the team options for Parsons, Beverly, and Troy Daniels, and if Francisco Garcia accepts his player option, which could happen. So, in order to get Love, the Rockets would have to also give up close to 15 million in salary, if no other player was included on Minnesota’s side of the deal. This is because both the Rockets and the T-wolves are over the salary cap, so Minnesota cannot receive more than 20.7 million in salary back from the Rockets. Minnesota would probably want to receive less then that back though, because if they have to rebuild again, there is no reason to be near the salary cap, unless they decide to take some big expiring contracts on to have a lot of cap space next year.
The biggest issue for the Rockets getting Love is the draft pick. According to Canis Hoopus, which is the Minnesota Timberwolves blog on SB Nation, the Wolves “need a shot at a real star in order to make a deal. Which means a high draft pick.” The author believes “an early-mid lottery pick” is what they would want from a trade. The Rockets do not have a high draft pick. In fact, they don’t even have one in the lottery. That could be an issue, but all hope is not lost. If they could work out a three team trade where a team with a lottery pick gives it to Minny and the Rockets give back a solid player and possibly their later pick, it could work.
If they could not find another team to facilitate a trade, then this seems like a long shot. But if they were able to make a package that the T-wolves really like, getting Love really doesn’t help the Rockets in the areas they need help. Last season, the rockets struggled defensively, allowing 103.1 ppg, which was 23rd in the league. They also had a 106.3 defensive rating, which was a pedestrian 13th in the league. To win championships, you have to have good defense to go along with good offense. Kevin Love has a defensive rating of 106 points allowed per 100 possessions for his career. Last season he allowed 104 points per 100 possessions. That is the same as Lamarcus Aldridge. Neither of those two are known for their defense, and while Love seems to be making steps in the right direction (he had the most defensive win shares of his career last year), he still is a defensive liability. And while he would be a huge upgrade at the power forward position, they would most likely make a huge hole at the small forward, if they do have to include Parsons. With little money to work with, the Rockets might have to depend on the likes of Francisco Garcia as their starting small forward. Ick.
This trade would also be confusing with how Minny would fare. Do they get Asik and try to play him with Nikola Pekovic? Peckovic has not played power forward since his first season, and he only played it about three percent of the time. That sounds like an ugly frontcourt that works worse than the Asik-Howard pairing. What if they got Lin, a guy who needs the ball in his hands to work? How would that work with Rubio? We don’t know. And we won’t know, unless a trade like this went down.
While this seems like a good trade for both Love and Minnesota at first glance, it doesn't seem too likely. Just because Love really likes Kevin McHale, and the Rockets are a contender, and they have lots of assets that they could trade to Minny doesn’t mean it is a good fit. The only way I see this trade being done is if there was a third part included and they gave up a high pick and got some solid players in return.
http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=nguujsg
I proposed a possible trade with the Cavs as the third party. The Cavs would give up the ninth pick to Minny, and the Rockets would give the Cavs the 25th pick. Minny would be able to cut Varejao if needed because his contract is only partially guaranteed. They get the expiring contract of Lin, Get rid of JJ Barea’s contract, and get two solid young guys in return. They could reject Parsons team option and let him be a restricted free agent in order to sign him long term, which might be a really good idea. Ultimately though, I don’t believe that Minnesota pulls the trigger on this deal. They will probably have a better option than this, and you can be sure they want to get everything they can.
Read part 1 here: http://basketballwriting.blogspot.com/2014/05/kevin-love-and-where-he-could-go-part-1.html
All the salary and cap info came from Hoopshype.com and any stats came from basketball-reference.com
Photo: David Sherman/NBAE via Getty Images
The Houston Rockets have two legit stars in James Harden and Dwight Howard, lots of solid players such as Omer Asik, Jeremy Lin and Chandler Parsons, and a ton of young talent such as Terrance Jones and Patrick Beverly. They will be legit title contenders next year, hands down. But Houston believes it needs a third true star in order to win it all, and that probably is the case. There were rumors that they would make a run to get ‘Melo in free agency if he opted out, and now there are rumors that they will try to trade for Love. While Love would make a great addition, and makes sense on the surface, it is slightly puzzling. While a Love and Howard frontcourt would dominate in so many ways, the acquisition of Love will not help the defense of the Rockets and the trade to get him would probably leave them with a huge hole at the small forward spot.
The Rockets have the 25th pick in the 2014 draft, which is not as good of a trade piece as the other possible team’s draft picks. All the other trade destinations either have more 1st rounders to offer this year or a pick within the lottery. Houston does have all of its future first rounders though, so they might be able to include their 2016 pick also. When it comes to players they can offer, there are lots of possibilities. Assuming that Harden and Howard are untouchable (they are unless Lebron or Durant is offered, and they won’t be), almost all of the other contracts from the Rockets are movable. That means Asik, Lin, Parsons, Jones, Beverly, Donatas Montiejunas, and any filler players could be moved fairly easily. Most likely though, the deal would involve Asik and Parsons along with a mix of other young players. No matter what players would actually be involved in the trade, though, the players that Minnesota would get back would be solid, and both Asik and Lin have huge expiring contracts. Asik is a good rim protector, Lin is a solid point guard, Parsons is a great starting small forward and third or fourth option on a contender, and the younger players have the possibility to develop into great players. When it comes to the cap situation, in the 14-15 season they will have 12 players on their roster taking up 65.4 million in salary if they accept the team options for Parsons, Beverly, and Troy Daniels, and if Francisco Garcia accepts his player option, which could happen. So, in order to get Love, the Rockets would have to also give up close to 15 million in salary, if no other player was included on Minnesota’s side of the deal. This is because both the Rockets and the T-wolves are over the salary cap, so Minnesota cannot receive more than 20.7 million in salary back from the Rockets. Minnesota would probably want to receive less then that back though, because if they have to rebuild again, there is no reason to be near the salary cap, unless they decide to take some big expiring contracts on to have a lot of cap space next year.
The biggest issue for the Rockets getting Love is the draft pick. According to Canis Hoopus, which is the Minnesota Timberwolves blog on SB Nation, the Wolves “need a shot at a real star in order to make a deal. Which means a high draft pick.” The author believes “an early-mid lottery pick” is what they would want from a trade. The Rockets do not have a high draft pick. In fact, they don’t even have one in the lottery. That could be an issue, but all hope is not lost. If they could work out a three team trade where a team with a lottery pick gives it to Minny and the Rockets give back a solid player and possibly their later pick, it could work.
If they could not find another team to facilitate a trade, then this seems like a long shot. But if they were able to make a package that the T-wolves really like, getting Love really doesn’t help the Rockets in the areas they need help. Last season, the rockets struggled defensively, allowing 103.1 ppg, which was 23rd in the league. They also had a 106.3 defensive rating, which was a pedestrian 13th in the league. To win championships, you have to have good defense to go along with good offense. Kevin Love has a defensive rating of 106 points allowed per 100 possessions for his career. Last season he allowed 104 points per 100 possessions. That is the same as Lamarcus Aldridge. Neither of those two are known for their defense, and while Love seems to be making steps in the right direction (he had the most defensive win shares of his career last year), he still is a defensive liability. And while he would be a huge upgrade at the power forward position, they would most likely make a huge hole at the small forward, if they do have to include Parsons. With little money to work with, the Rockets might have to depend on the likes of Francisco Garcia as their starting small forward. Ick.
This trade would also be confusing with how Minny would fare. Do they get Asik and try to play him with Nikola Pekovic? Peckovic has not played power forward since his first season, and he only played it about three percent of the time. That sounds like an ugly frontcourt that works worse than the Asik-Howard pairing. What if they got Lin, a guy who needs the ball in his hands to work? How would that work with Rubio? We don’t know. And we won’t know, unless a trade like this went down.
While this seems like a good trade for both Love and Minnesota at first glance, it doesn't seem too likely. Just because Love really likes Kevin McHale, and the Rockets are a contender, and they have lots of assets that they could trade to Minny doesn’t mean it is a good fit. The only way I see this trade being done is if there was a third part included and they gave up a high pick and got some solid players in return.
http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=nguujsg
I proposed a possible trade with the Cavs as the third party. The Cavs would give up the ninth pick to Minny, and the Rockets would give the Cavs the 25th pick. Minny would be able to cut Varejao if needed because his contract is only partially guaranteed. They get the expiring contract of Lin, Get rid of JJ Barea’s contract, and get two solid young guys in return. They could reject Parsons team option and let him be a restricted free agent in order to sign him long term, which might be a really good idea. Ultimately though, I don’t believe that Minnesota pulls the trigger on this deal. They will probably have a better option than this, and you can be sure they want to get everything they can.
Read part 1 here: http://basketballwriting.blogspot.com/2014/05/kevin-love-and-where-he-could-go-part-1.html
All the salary and cap info came from Hoopshype.com and any stats came from basketball-reference.com
